ECB enhances global trade tracker with real-time satellite data
Recent global shocks have underscored the importance of timely trade monitoring. The European Central Bank has augmented its global trade tracker with real-time indicators derived from satellite data on vessel movements, providing timely insights into global trade dynamics and currently indicating subdued but improving trade.
From financial limits to orbital insights
ECB staff initially developed a global trade tracker in 2020, relying on financial market data for logistics companies, but its accuracy was limited.
This initial version, while timelier than national accounts data, struggled with out-of-sample accuracy.
The new approach incorporates real-time information from the automatic identification system (AIS), which tracks vessel movements via satellite.
This data allows for the construction of four key indices: country-level aggregate trade, maritime activity at key chokepoints, trade flows for specific commodities like oil and LNG, and automotive exports.
Sharper forecasts from space
Satellite-based indicators demonstrate a stronger correlation with global trade than traditional financial indicators, significantly improving the tracker's forecast performance.
Statistical tests confirm their superior predictive power, with some indices showing a Pearson correlation above 0.7 with global imports.
The augmented tracker, incorporating 47 series (25 weekly satellite-based and 22 monthly), has boosted directional forecast accuracy from below 50 percent to approximately 80 percent and halved the out-of-sample root mean squared error.
This enhanced accuracy is particularly evident during periods when financial markets diverge from actual trade dynamics, such as in 2022 and early 2025.
The tracker currently suggests global trade bottomed out in Q2 2025 and is now improving, albeit remaining subdued.