ECB Survey: Consumer inflation expectations stable, growth outlook darkens
The European Central Bank's Consumer Expectations Survey for November 2025 indicates median inflation expectations remained unchanged across all horizons. However, consumers grew more pessimistic on economic growth, while expectations for spending growth, home prices, and mortgage rates declined.
Inflationary calm prevails
Median consumer perceptions of inflation over the previous 12 months held at 3.1% for the tenth consecutive month. Short-term (12-month) expectations remained at 2.8%, while longer-term expectations (three and five years ahead) were also unchanged at 2.5% and 2.2% respectively. Uncertainty about near-term inflation expectations also remained stable in November.
Growth concerns deepen, housing cools
Expectations for economic growth over the next 12 months became more negative, falling to -1.3% from -1.1% in October. Concurrently, expected unemployment in 12 months decreased slightly to 10.9%, suggesting a broadly stable labor market outlook. Home price growth expectations and anticipated mortgage interest rates both declined in November.
Key Facts
| Perceived inflation (past 12m) | 3.1% | unchanged |
| Inflation expectations (next 12m) | 2.8% | unchanged |
| Economic growth expectations (next 12m) | -1.3% | -0.2pp |
| Home price growth expectations (next 12m) | 3.4% | -0.1pp |
| Mortgage rate expectations (next 12m) | 4.6% | -0.1pp |